Stocks End Lower as Oil Prices Swing on Middle East Tensions

Despite a broad-based rally last Friday, stocks generally closed the week lower. With the exception of the Global Dow, each of the benchmark indexes listed here ended last week in the red. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East have wreaked havoc with crude oil prices, which jumped to over $100/barrel last Thursday, only to plunge to about $90/barrel by the end of the week. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped to their highest levels since January 2025 following a four-session rally before settling at 4.67%. Energy, industrials, information technology, utilities, health care, and materials outperformed, while consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and communication services declined.

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week’s Economic News

Sales of new single-family houses in June were 1.6% above the May rate but 5.6% below the June 2025 estimate. Inventory of new single-family homes for sale in June represented a supply of 9.3 months at the current sales rate, which was 1.1% below the May 2026 estimate but 3.3% above the June 2025 figure. The median sales price of new houses sold in June was $398,300. This was 3.3% below the May price of $412,000, and 2.7% under the June 2025 price of $409,200. The average sales price of new houses sold in June was $475,400. This was 9.5% below the May price of $525,200 and 6.5% under the June 2025 price of $508,700.
For the week ended July 18, there were 187,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended July 11 was 1.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended July 11 was 1,796,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised down by 7,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended July 4 were New Jersey (2.6%), Puerto Rico (2.6%), Rhode Island (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.2%), Minnesota (2.2%), Oregon (2.1%), Washington (2.0%), California (1.9%), New York (1.8%), Connecticut (1.7%), Nevada (1.7%), and Pennsylvania (1.7%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 11 were in New York (+12,580), Michigan (+3,143), Florida (+2,799), Texas (+2,676), and South Carolina (+2,113), while the largest decreases were in New Jersey (-5,603), Missouri (-5,391), California (-2,311), Massachusetts (-1,342), and Rhode Island (-1,031).
The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $4.001 per gallon on July 20, $0.146 per gallon above the prior week’s price and $0.880 per gallon higher than a year ago. Also, as of July 20, the East Coast price increased $0.159 to $3.924 per gallon; the Midwest price rose $0.118 to $3.780 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price climbed $0.165 to $3.588 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price increased $0.133 to $3.956 per gallon; and the West Coast price advanced $0.151 to $4.983 per gallon.

Eye on the Week Ahead

There’s plenty of market-moving economic data being released this week. The Federal Reserve concludes its meeting on Wednesday, and it’s expected to leave interest rates alone. The report on gross domestic product for the second quarter is available as is the June data on consumer prices.

The Week Ahead

The information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI, Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).