Despite high interest rates and unsettling geopolitical conflict, the U.S. economy outperformed the expectations of most economists in 2023.1 Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (Real GDP) accelerated to an annualized rate of 5.2% in the third quarter, after growing 2.1% in Q2 and 2.2% in Q1. Inflation, as measured by the 12-month change in the price index […]
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With Holidays Ahead, Can Consumers Keep Carrying the Economy?
Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), so it plays an outsized role in driving economic growth or slowing it down.1 For the last 18 months, U.S. consumers have kept the economy strong despite high inflation and rising interest rates. The question now is whether consumers can maintain this momentum through […]
Read MoreRising Oil Prices Could Pose the Latest Threat to the Economy
Oil prices have increased more than 30% since late June, driving up transportation costs for consumers and businesses and putting financial markets on edge. On September 27, West Texas Intermediate crude — the U.S. benchmark for oil prices — topped $93 per barrel, the highest level since August 2022. Brent crude (the global oil benchmark) […]
Read MoreU.S. Economy: Soft Landing or Delayed Recession?
Economists have been predicting a recession for the U.S. economy ever since the Federal Reserve began aggressively raising interest rates in 2022. This is Econ 101. High interest rates, which make it more expensive to borrow, are intended to tame inflation by slowing business and consumer spending. A rapid and extreme increase in rates, as […]
Read MoreIs This Bull Timid or Ready to Charge?
On June 8, 2023, the S&P 500 index closed at 4,293.93, just over 20% higher than its lowest recent closing value of 3,577.03 reached on October 12, 2022.1 According to a common definition of market cycles, this indicated that the benchmark index was officially in a bull market after a bear market that began in January […]
Read MoreFiscal Responsibility Act of 2023
The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, signed into law on June 3, 2023, suspends the federal debt ceiling until January 2025. The legislation also includes a number of spending cuts. It is estimated to reduce federal budget deficits by about $1.5 trillion over the 2023-2033 period relative to the May 2023 baseline projections, according to […]
Read MoreWhat You Should Know About the Debt Ceiling Debate
On Monday, May 22, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy met at the White House to discuss raising the statutory limit on U.S. government debt, generally called the debt ceiling. Although both leaders termed the discussion “productive,” there was no resolution, and their respective negotiating teams continued discussions.1 Here are some answers to questions […]
Read MoreWhat You Should Know About the Federal Reserve’s New Instant Payments System
The use of mobile payment apps and person-to-person (P2P) payments are more popular than ever, giving businesses and consumers the ability to send and receive money instantly. According to a recent study, the share of P2P payments made with mobile apps nearly doubled in one year, increasing from 15% in 2020 to 29% in 2021.1 In […]
Read MoreRescuing America’s Safety Net
A March 2023 survey found that more than 90% of Americans worry about the Social Security program, and about half of those said they worry a great deal.1 A separate survey the same month found that more than 80% of Americans worry Medicare will not be able to provide the same level of benefits in the […]
Read MoreThe Debt Ceiling and Deficit Spending
On January 19, 2023, the outstanding debt of the U.S. government reached its statutory limit, commonly called the debt ceiling. The current limit was set by Congress at about $31.4 trillion in December 2021.1 On the day the limit was reached, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen instituted well-established “extraordinary measures” to allow necessary borrowing for a […]
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