Category: Weekly Investment Update

The yield on the 10-Year Treasury stood at 3.20% early last November and the S&P 500 stood at 2,800, down about 4% from its late September high. The market timers’ crystal balls flashed images of recession and steep stock price declines. The Fed, we were told, had sealed the deal when it raised the fed […]

Little has happened in the two weeks I was away. Conflicting messages on the economy continued but our stuttering expansion continued. The stock market, while volatile on a daily basis, finished the past 2-week period with a correction of just 0.93%. The bond market left us with slightly lower yields over the period with the […]

There will be a two-week hiatus in the Weekly Update schedule.  Regular updates will return on June 17th. “Headlines, in a way, are what mislead you, because bad news is a headline, and gradual improvement is not.” ~ Bill Gates Recent developments in the trade negotiations have surprised many about the speed with which a […]

The markets have been jolted by raised tensions in the current trade negotiations. Most economists agree the best trade policy is free trade, with no tariffs, no barriers to entry, and no subsidies. Free markets and global trade have proven to be the best way to promote global prosperity. But we were a long way […]

Fight the perverse human urges to react to market movements. When stock indexes are making new highs, as they did several weeks ago, many feel the urge to get on board. When stock prices are moving down, the all too common impulse is to sell before prices move even lower. The evidence which proves such […]

It was reported a record breaking 43,000 people attended Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting in Omaha on Saturday. I have not seen a count for this year’s meeting but in 2018, Yahoo Finance, who streams the meeting live, estimated 35 million viewers tuned in to watch the event online. Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger must be […]

The recovery from last year’s break down is complete. Stock prices moved higher last week with the S&P 500 closing at a new all-time high of 2,939.88 on Friday. At that point, the index was up 17.27% year to date and 25.04% from the Christmas Eve low. Economic news continued to support the belief that […]

U.S. stocks were flat to slightly higher in anemic trading in the short week ending Thursday. With roughly 15% of companies reporting, the consensus estimate for composite earnings has improved to a decline of 3.8%. Activity will pick up this week as a much heavier flow of Q1 earnings reports begins. Our advice remains unchanged. […]

Stocks were putting together a lackluster week until Friday morning when the first Q1 earnings announcements began with a couple of the big banks who reported better than expected results. The positive results suggested to some that the consensus expectation for a year over year earnings contraction of 4%, may be the floor for this […]

Economic data became more volatile in the final months of last year and the early months of 2019. Some unexpected softness in retail sales and a leveling off of consumer optimism added to the ongoing sluggishness in home sales and business capital investment. The Fed had raised short term rates as the economy grew through […]