Low Signal-To-Noise Ratio

Think back to two years ago. Do you remember the 4.5% decline over the five trading days ending February 10, 2016? This decline added to what had already been an 8.8% fall in the S&P 500 which began the previous November. Do you remember the explanations provided for the 13% decline? Do you not recall […]

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Q4 2018 Earnings Season

We have gotten some relief from the volatile decline which ended on Christmas Eve, down 19.78% from 2018’s September 20th high. Five of the last six weeks have closed higher with Friday’s close leaving the S&P 500 up 15.12% from its holiday low but still 7.65% below the index high on September 20th. The pullback […]

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Accumulation Phase vs. Distribution Phase

For most people, a retirement plan has two stages. During one’s working years, techniques like dollar cost averaging augment the power of compounding (the reinvestment of investment income) to grow the value of financial portfolios. The retirement years, when additions to portfolios typically come to an end and distributions begin, require different planning decisions. For […]

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Summary and Outlook

While volatility and the possibility of a test of the recent lows are likely during the first quarter, the 2019 outlook is better than the markets seemed to be signaling in December. There is no sense in me trying to restate what Philip Orlando, CFA and Senior Vice President, Chief Equity Market Strategist and Head […]

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Wealth Preservation and Wealth Creation

Volatility is the price investors pay for long-term wealth creation. Markets fluctuate, sometimes wildly, and this is the reason a person should never invest funds which will be needed in the immediate future in investments which trade in volatile public markets. The definition of immediate future is a personal one, which is why it is […]

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Positive Start to the New Year

Last week, Fed Chairman Powell confirmed the Fed’s future interest rate and balance sheet reduction decisions are not predetermined. Previous Fed boards and chairs have a spotty history of setting Fed policy, so some concern is understandable but current criticism seems excessive. We believe current FOMC members are at least as smart as the majority […]

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Year-End Planning

This year’s stock market correction and increased volatility has monopolized the headlines and commentary leaving other important issues unaddressed. One of those topics is tax planning. The new standard deduction which is part of the 2018 tax law will increase the number of individuals and couples who will use the standard deduction. This change, by […]

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Sideways, Lower and Higher

Why do we constantly hear about investment time-horizons? Because, as the old saying goes, time in the market is a consistently effective approach to investing while timing the market is not a dependable strategy. It is impossible to know what the market is going to do. We can’t even agree on what the market has […]

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Headwinds Down to a Breeze

The stock market correction stalled last week. One of two headwinds was eliminated when Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, confirmed the members of the Federal Open Market Committee are not the ill-informed, mindless and stubborn group many self-serving market participants and commentators had declared them to be in recent weeks. The market gained 4.85%, as measured […]

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Reasonable Developments

Stock prices continue to churn, to put it kindly. By finishing Thanksgiving week 3.79% lower, the S&P 500 added another 10% correction (from the September 20th high) to the 2018 record book. The current negative mood may continue for a few more weeks and percentage points but at the moment, a bear market decline of […]

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