Category: Weekly Investment Update

In the United States, there is not a single Treasury bond which currently pays more than 1.96%. The dividend yield on the S&P 500 currently exceeds the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond and those dividends will increase over time. The recent decline in interest rates means an increase in bond prices. In the month […]

Four-hundred fifty of the S&P 500 companies have reported second quarter earnings. To date, earnings were reported at a rate of 5.7% above estimates while aggregate revenue was 0.8% above expectations. Results relative to expectations will generally have an immediate impact on market prices and in the cases of individual companies may have long-term implications. […]

It is time again to start thinking about tax planning for the current tax year. Many financial decisions made during the year have already included a consideration of the impact on tax liability. Late summer is the best time to step back from the trees of the many on-the-fly calculations made throughout the year and […]

The cost of capital has been declining around the world. Interest rates are at or below zero in many countries. Nominal interest rates in the U.S. remain positive but our real interest rates (yield minus the rate of inflation) are at or below zero. The 10-Year Treasury, after a run up to over 3.20% last […]

Stocks dropped, taking the S&P 500 down over three percent for the week, as doubts about a near term continuation of what had already been a 20% rally this calendar year mounted. Continued weakness in stock prices is likely to be with us through the remainder of the summer with the correction totaling 5% to […]

With 44% of S&P 500 companies reporting, revenues and earnings have been a hodgepodge. FactSet revealed 61% of companies reported revenues above expectations and 77% of companies have posted earnings which beat expectations. However, do not forget that expectations have been lowered significantly beginning in late 2018 in anticipation of a 2019 recession which has […]

The S&P 500 experienced its first negative week in the month of July, finishing down 1.23%. The index is still up 18.74 year-to-date. To ease concerns that stocks have moved up too much, too soon, consider this: the index at 2,976.61 is up just 1.56% from last year’s September 20th high of 2,930.75 and has […]

Stocks rallied to new highs last week with all three of the major U.S. stock indexes closing at new all-time highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 27,000, the S&P 500 breaching 3,000, and the NASDAQ breaking 8,200. The new highs hit in an atmosphere of caution rather than euphoria. First, investors have been cautious […]

The S&P 500 was up 1.65% last week, leaving the index up 19.29% year-to-date. Due to the sharp runup, we began reducing equity allocations several weeks ago and have trimmed our overweight position in equities by two percentage points. We are planning another round of reductions in the coming weeks which will amount to as […]

Markets were relatively flat last week, going into the weekend’s G-20 Summit in Osaka, Japan. Little detail emerged from the summit, other than announcements of the resumption of trade negotiations which had stalled. The welcome restart of negotiations still leaves us a long way from resolution which will likely take years. The best we can […]